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Showing 187 biases.

Not Enough Meaning

We simplify probabilities and numbers to make them easier to think about

Subadditivity effect

Description

The tendency to judge the probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.

Example 1:

When estimating project costs, the sum of estimates for individual tasks might be perceived as less than an overall holistic estimate of the entire project, potentially leading to underestimation.

Example 2:

When estimating the total time to complete a project, a manager might estimate time for each individual task. The sum of these might be less than if they estimated the project as a whole, because they might overlook interdependencies or overheads.