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Pseudocertainty effect

Description

The tendency for people to perceive an outcome as certain when it is actually uncertain in multi-stage decision making.

Example 1:

A business might choose a strategy that guarantees a small positive outcome in an initial phase, making them feel certain of overall success, even if subsequent phases carry significant, unaddressed risks.

Example 2:

A promotion offering a "guaranteed gift" with a purchase might make the overall offer seem more certain and appealing, even if the gift's value is small or the purchase itself has uncertain benefits.