Not Enough Meaning
We tend to find stories and patterns even when looking at sparse data
Masked–man fallacy
Description
An informal fallacy which occurs when one makes an illicit use of Leibniz's law in an argument (substituting identicals).
Masked–man fallacy in business decision
A manager believes "Our top competitor is struggling" and "The company that just laid off 20% of its staff is struggling." If the top competitor is NOT the one that did layoffs, concluding they are the same is fallacious.
Masked–man fallacy in personal life decision
You reason that because you don't recognize a person in disguise, they must not be your friend, even though your friend is wearing the disguise.