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Showing 187 biases.

Not Enough Meaning

We tend to find stories and patterns even when looking at sparse data

Illusion of validity

Description

A cognitive bias in which a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data, in particular when the data analyzed show a very consistent pattern.

Illusion of validity in business decision

An HR manager consistently uses a specific set of interview questions and believes they are highly effective at predicting job success, despite a lack of empirical evidence correlating these questions with performance.

Illusion of validity in personal life decision

You are convinced you can predict winners in horse races after a few lucky guesses, ignoring overall poor performance.