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Browse & Filter Biases

Showing 187 biases.

Not Enough Meaning

We tend to find stories and patterns even when looking at sparse data

Hot–hand fallacy

Description

The fallacious belief that a person who has experienced success with a random event has a greater chance of further success in additional attempts.

Example 1:

A salesperson who has closed several deals in a row might believe they are on a "hot streak" and take on riskier leads, assuming continued success regardless of probabilities.

Example 2:

An investment manager who has had a few consecutive profitable quarters might be perceived by themself or others as having a "hot hand," leading to overconfidence and potentially riskier investments.

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