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Conjunction fallacy

Description

A formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one.

Example 1:

Believing it's more likely that a quiet, studious employee is "an accountant and enjoys sci-fi novels" than just "an accountant," even though the former is a subset of the latter and thus less probable.

Example 2:

Participants in a study might rate it more probable that "Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement" than that "Linda is a bank teller," even though the former is a subset of the latter. In business, this could lead to overestimating the likelihood of highly specific market scenarios.