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Not Enough Meaning

We simplify probabilities and numbers to make them easier to think about

Appeal to probability fallacy

Description

A statement that takes something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might be the case).

Appeal to probability fallacy in business decision

Assuming a marketing campaign will be successful because similar campaigns have been successful in the past, without considering specific current market conditions or target audience changes.

Appeal to probability fallacy in personal life decision

You assume you will eventually win a lottery because someone has to, ignoring the extremely low probability.