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Not Enough Meaning

We simplify probabilities and numbers to make them easier to think about

Appeal to probability fallacy

Description

A statement that takes something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might be the case).

Example 1:

Assuming a marketing campaign will be successful because similar campaigns have been successful in the past, without considering specific current market conditions or target audience changes.

Example 2:

"Our competitor hasn't launched a new product in a year, so they are probably struggling and won't be a threat this quarter." This assumes a probable outcome as a certainty, potentially leading to strategic missteps.